Bracketology 2011

The 2011 NCAA basketball tournament is getting ready to begin, which means it's time to break out those brackets for what is known as bracketology.  Bracketology refers to the process of figuring out and predicting who will not only be in the annual college basketball tournament, but who will make it to the later rounds and win it all.  Every year experts and fans alike try to figure out the placement of teams in the tournament based on what the selection committee looks for.  Since no one can wait to see what the actual field will look like, everyone has to do their own job of predicting it.  Since there are a total of 68 teams that are selected to play in the tournament, making correct predictions is no easy task.  You can say there is a science to figuring it all out, but in the end, we're all just making our best guesses.

While the term "bracketology" was invented by Joe Lunardi of ESPN, it has been applied to matters that have nothing to do with basketball.  Lunardi even teaches a course at Saint Joseph's University called "Fundamentals of Bracketology."

A lot of factors go in to the selection process for the NCAA tournament.  There are 68 teams to place in four different regions of the South, West, East and Midwest.  Things like the RPI rankings, strength of schedule and conference all play into how a team gets in and where they are placed in the bracket.  Teams that get in want to get the highest seed they can because it means playing an easier schedule to the finals of the tournament.  The top seeds are given to the best teams in college basketball.  There are 16 seeds in each region of the bracket, so four teams will receive #1 seeds.  2011 marks the first time that 68 teams will be allowed in the tournament, four more than in recent years.  The teams will be selected for the tournament on what is known as Selection Sunday on March 13, 2011.  The first round of the tournament will be played on March 15 and 16.

Those that attempt to predict the outcome of the bracket selections are considered to be bracketologists.  The more correct predictions made, the more credible the bracketologist is.  They can also score points for getting seed numbers correct or close to the actual outcome.  Predicting the field is quite a challenge, especially since things can change a great deal right up until the end of the conference tournaments.  Picking the #1 seeds is usually pretty easy since they often go to the four teams that are considered the best.  However, any team that wins their conference tournament receives an automatic bid into the tournament, regardless of their overall record or ranking.  For teams that are "on the bubble," this is a sure-fire way to get into the tournament.  On the other hand, teams that look to be in a good spot can see their stock plummet if they end the season on a losing streak or lose to teams that they should beat.  Even if a team doesn't win their conference tournament, then can make a good case for themselves by making it far in their tournament or by beating highly ranked teams.

Upsets usually play a big role before and after the tournament has started.  This is why it is so hard to predict who will be in the tournament and in what seed.  Nothing can be certain until after all regular season and conference tournament games have been played.  Even after all this, there is no certain way to know exactly what the selection committee will do.  All teams can do is sit and watch as the bracket seedings are announced on TV.  Some teams will be elated at their seeding or by even getting into the tournament while others on the bubble may be disappointed to find out that they were not selected.

Who will be selected for the Bracketology 2011 and who will be staying home?  Will this be the year that a 16 seed finally takes down a #1 (something that has never happened before).  Only time will tell.  Just make sure you get those brackets filled out after the selections have been made.  Maybe you will be able to predict all the outcomes on your own.  Enjoy March Madness 2011!